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Most trading platforms have been designed off-exchange binary options trading, fraud, and registration violations. This is not the case from traditional options. These documents may contain dissenting footnotes, also called reclamas , documenting a disagreement by a particular organization or specialists. NIEs are typically associated with standing task groups. There is controversy over the US Office of Special Plans and whether it bypassed the intelligence community cross-checking process. Estimative intelligence helps policymakers to think strategically about long-term threats by discussing the implications of a range of possible outcomes and alternative scenarios.
They are not strictly operational, but fall into a special analysis and dissemination category because they usually involve multi-agency coordination. In the topmost article of this series, Sun Tzu was quoted.
Going beyond the pure intelligence is the assessment of known capabilities of one's own resources versus the best estimate of opponent capabilities. Clausewitz' book On War  asks a simple question: How can the national leadership know how much force will be necessary to bring to bear against a potential enemy? Clausewitz replies, "We must gauge the character of.
Finally, we must evaluate the political sympathies of other states and the effect the war may have on them. Clausewitz warns that studying enemy weaknesses without considering one's own capacity to take advantage of those weaknesses is a mistake. Many first heard of the term centers of gravity in the context of Desert Storm or COL John Warden, but Warden's contribution was adapting the idea  to air campaigns, of the Clausewitz idea  of a "center of gravity," a feature that if successfully attacked, can stop the enemy's war effort.
Assessment requires considering the potential interaction of the two sides. According to Clausewitz, "One must keep the dominant characteristics of both belligerents in mind. First and foremost, Net Assessment is nothing but the capability to analyse and measure the strategical assets of each warring side for example, how many tanks it has, how many soldiers etc.
But Net Assessment is not only the measurement of material matters, but it is also the capability to try to estimate moral assets such as a people's will to fight in a given war, how far a state is capable of waging war, how willing are their generals and soldiers to fight in a war and other moral aspects of warfare in general. In the US, strategic assessment is one step beyond intelligence estimates, although intelligence analysts may well participate in the subsequent process of strategic assessment.
The result, called a net assessment in the US and the correlation of forces in the fUSSR, are not themselves contingency plans, but are critical to the formulation of plans. Strategic assessment, above all else, is an examination of interactions, rather than the likely unilateral actions of another side or coalition.
Formalizing the role of a command historian was one of the first steps in the evolution of a true general staff,  as opposed to the personal entourage of a commander. By applying the planned assessment methodology to historical data, the methodology, cautiously, may be validated. Caution is needed because contingencies can make historical behavior obsolete.
In fact, a widely praised explanation for the causes of war is precisely that strategic assessments were in conflict prior to the initiation of combat—one side seldom starts a war knowing in advance it will lose. How have major nations conducted strategic assessments of the security environment?
There is no one standard. There are some errors that repeat. The Office of Net Assessment , in the US Department of Defense, under Andrew Marshall , commissioned a set of seven historical examples of strategic assessment from to ,  compares the pre-WWII equivalent of net assessment by seven countries. Mistakes in these assessments become "lessons learned" are relevant to any effort, Pillsbury's focus, to understand how the Chinese leadership conducts strategic assessment of its future security environment.
The main problem was how to frame assessments, particularly with regard to political-military factors such as who were the potential threats and potential allies, and what international alignments would be vital to the outcomes of future wars.
An early but obsolete approach to estimation was a very simple quantitative one, using Lanchester's Laws. A simple comparison of forces of roughly equal capability can come down to number of soldiers, ratio of attackers to defenders, defensive quality of the terrain, and other basics. That sort of model breaks down, however, when the forces are dissimilar in quality of leadership, troop morale and initiative, or doctrine and technology.
Japan made this mistake as it prepared for WWII, putting garrisons on a large number of islands, and considering their battleships one of their centers of gravity. Unfortunately for the Japanese, the US did not choose to make battleships its primary arm, fight for every Japanese outpost, use submarines only against the warrior targets of warships, or require a return to a fleet anchorage for regrouping.
Intelligence was not a preferred assignment in the Japanese military, and their operations planners tended to make optimistic assumptions. An eccentric but incredibly creative US Marine, Earl Ellis, however, did foresee the US strategy for the Pacific in the s, and set a standard for long-term estimates and net assessment . France, as well as Japan, used overly simplistic assumptions and calculations in assessing the situation with Germany.
Army manpower and equipment were roughly equal, with a slight advantage to France. French tanks, individually, were superior in weapons and protection to their German equivalent.
German air power, however, was nearly double that of France. At its highest governmental levels, France did not understand the way in which Germany would combine tanks and aircraft, closely coordinated, and drive quickly into the rear, with German infantry securing the breaches.
Ironically, a fairly junior officer, named Charles de Gaulle , had described just such tactics as Heinz Guderian conceived in Blitzkrieg. In the areas of breakthrough, the Germans achieved at least a 4: Numeric ratios alone, as in the Lanchester equations, could not deal with concentration of force, or the force multiplier effect of coordinated air and armor.
France also failed to consider that Germany might first defeat East European allies such as Poland and Czechoslovakia. The lesson for intelligence here is not to assume a very limited range of allies, or that certain avenues of attack, such as the Germans through the Ardennes or the Low Countries, are impossible. The analyst has the responsibility to let consumers, who may be subject matter experts, know about unlikely scenarios, as well as giving the consumers the detail they want on the likely scenarios.
Another mistake is to assume which nations and groups will see the country doing an assessment as a friend. While this was wargamed again and again, there had been little analysis of a two-front war with the Axis. Britain also did not consider the effect of the Soviet Union as a second front.
Not all WWII assumptions were flawed. In , while the US had assumed it would be able to base troops in Saudi Arabia to meet a threat to that nation, such as the invasion of Kuwait, that was not a prior commitment by the Saudis. Even when preliminary negotiations were positive, the size of the proposed American force shocked the Saudis. For a time, until the King was convinced, the US assumption was just that. McNamara , US Secretary of Defense during most of the Vietnam War, came from a background of quantitative analysis both in conventional warfare and industry, but appeared to assume that the North Vietnamese leadership would use logic similar to his own.
Johnson , however, personalized conflict, seeing Ho Chi Minh as someone to dominate. Both assumptions were severely flawed. Unfortunately, as McMaster points out, Johnson and McNamara tended to ignore intelligence that contradicted their preconceptions. It can be dangerous to assume wartime capabilities of an opponent, based on their published doctrines, known training exercises, deployments, and news reporting.
There was widespread belief that some of the key US weapons systems, such as the M1A1 Abrams tank, AH Apache helicopter, stealth technology and precision guided munitions would not be effective in the deserts of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. While detailed postwar analysis showed that early reports about weapons effectiveness were overstated, precision guidance was a significant force multiplier.
An unexpected force multiplier was GPS , which let Coalition soldiers go off-road and move through the desert as ships moved through the seas, where Iraqis stayed on roads for ease of navigation. What goes into strategic assessment?
A RAND Corporation study  starts with assessing national power, based on resources, the nation's ability to use those resources, and the capabilities of both its standing military and how that military could be multiplied by national mobilization. This study, however, was focused on conventional warfare, and did not consider the much more common national military and nonmilitary options other than war.
The latter, variously known as nation-building , peace operations,   or stability operations . While many of his ideas are controversial, Thomas P.
Barnett created a paradigm that better combines the military and nonmilitary aspects. His fundamental model says "The problem with most discussion of globalization is that too many experts treat it as a binary outcome: Either it is great and sweeping the planet, or it is horrid and failing humanity everywhere. Neither view really works, because globalization as a historical process is simply too big and too complex for such summary judgments.
Instead, this new world must be defined by where globalization has truly taken root and where it has not. These parts of the world I call the Functioning Core, or Core. But show me where globalization is thinning or just plain absent, and I will show you regions plagued by politically repressive regimes, widespread poverty and disease, routine mass murder, and—most important—the chronic conflicts that incubate the next generation of global terrorists.
The system administrator force focuses on connecting nations to the "Core". Typically, it would be a multinational organization, not primarily a military force although containing police and security forces, and having regular military force available.
While Barnett's arguments that the invasion of Iraq are questionable in hindsight, one can also observe that the invasion used Leviathan alone, and an outcome might have been different had a System Administrator force been following Leviathan, with adequate resources and legitimacy. In the broadest definition, "strategic assessment" implies a forecast of peacetime and wartime competition between two nations or two alliances that includes the identification of enemy vulnerabilities and weaknesses in comparison to the strengths and advantages of one's own side.
Many lessons have been learned, including perspective on balancing security of information against use of information. In the s, RAND Corporation analysts who were doing the studies of Soviet power for the Defense Department, was producing badly skewed results, based on the Soviets being more dangerous than they were in reality. The analysts were not allowed to know, for security reasons, that Soviet Bison and Bear bombers had critical reliability problems.
More bombers might crash in the Arctic than could arrive in North America. When the senior commanders and the intelligence community eventually found out the effects of the disconnect, it led to some reexamination of the tradeoffs between having absolutely secure intelligence versus intelligence that could actually affect policy.
The practice of strategic assessment by the U. Department of Defense in the past 25 years has been divided into six categories of studies and analysis: Some of these studies look 20 or 30 years into the future to examine trends and discontinuities in technology, economic indicators, and other factors. Red Team perceptions of foreign decision makers and even the process by which foreign institutions make strategic assessments.
As Andrew Marshall, Director, Net Assessment, wrote in about assessing the former Soviet Union, "A major component of any assessment of the adequacy of the strategic balance should be our best approximation of a Soviet-style assessment of the strategic balance. But this must not be the standard U. The result is that Soviet assessments may substantially differ from American assessments. Studies analyzing perceptions are difficult because the data used often must be inferred from public writings and speeches.
Implicit biases of Americans based on our own education and culture must also be avoided. The most relevant comparison for China may be the Soviet Union, but this is also the most secret.
As Professor Earl Ziemke put it, after three decades of research on Soviet military affairs, even when he tried to use historical data to look back from to The Soviet net assessment process cannot be directly observed.
Like a dark object in outer space, its probable nature can be discerned only from interactions with visible surroundings. Fortunately, its rigidly secret environment has been somewhat subject to countervailing conditions.
Tukhachevsky and his associates conducted relatively open discussion in print. There is intense secrecy about Chinese national security matters, but comparisons with other nations' processes of strategic assessment can increase our understanding of how China may assess its future security environment.
By viewing China in comparative perspective, it may be possible to understand better how China deals with its assessment problems. The leader of the Communist Party publicly presented a global strategic assessment to periodic Communist Party Congresses. The authors of the military portions of the assessment came from two institutions that have counterparts in Beijing today and were prominent in Moscow in the s: Another similarity was that the Communist Party leader chaired a defense council or main military committee and in these capacities attended peacetime military exercises and was involved deciding the details of military strategy, weapons acquisition, and war planning.
In the US, there are independent or ideologically associated "think tanks", and there are government contract research organizations both not-for-profit and for-profit. In China, the primary difference between these Chinese institutes and American research institutes is their "ownership. Members of these institutes often decline to discuss in any detail the exact nature of their internal reports.
They are not puppets, however, and many research institutions are important in their own right for the creative ideas they produce. Their leaders carry great prestige and have high rank in the Communist Party.
Gaming, when it involves players that have experience at the levels at which they are playing, can complement or validate strategic assessment. It is not uncommon, at national levels, to have intelligence analysts in the "Red Force" or other nations in a multilateral game, play their counterpart or an equivalent commander in the country or group on which they are expert.
Even at national-level games, it has always been the US practice never to have the incumbent President as an actual player, although some have observed. The rationale is preventing any adversary from knowing, with high confidence, how a President will decide in a given circumstance. The Presidential player typically is a former Cabinet member with extensive politicomilitary experience. Britain, however, may regard top-level games as a valuable practice exercise for policymakers.
Margaret Thatcher was reputed to play in these games, and be very serious about them. Strategic gaming is to be distinguished from training exercises, although there are training exercises for generals at the division two-star and corps three-star levels.
Polk, VA , what are now called Warfighter formerly BCTP exercises are apt to be command posts only, with controllers simulating subordinate units. This is realistic, as in modern warfare, the forces are so widely dispersed that senior generals could not physically watch all their forces. As a result of the "command post in the sky" excesses of Vietnam, with stacked helicopters well up the chain of command, micromanaging small battles, there is a reluctance to let generals get too close.
During the Cold War when major nuclear exchanges were a real possibility, the two sides understood one another reasonably well. Over time, even more so after the end of the USSR, Russia and the US have taken various steps to avoid military misunderstanding, such as putting liaison teams into one another's' strategic warning centers. In the beginning of the Cold War, strategic gaming, given the "massive retaliation" strategies of the earlier parts of the Cold War, concentrated on major nuclear exchanges.
One of the things taught by these games was that the resultant exchanges would cause huge casualties, but might not be politically meaningful. It can be argued that war gaming results were an incentive, in the late fifties and early sixties, to bring nuclear targeting under tighter civilian policy control in the US, and start to explore more limited scenarios such as counterforce, counterforce with avoidance  and "blunting" conventional forces.
Tactical nuclear warfare limited to the oceans was examined as an option that might not escalate. The actual gaming, however, appeared to disprove some assumptions based on simple force ratios. Especially with cooperation from other services, these assumptions were not found to be consistently true.
A side effect of learning how interdependence could help all services was improved cooperation among the military intelligence and operations personnel. As important as the joint, interactive nature of the game was, GLOBAL increasingly was recognized for the realism injected into the decisionmaking that represented what might be expected in a global superpower military confrontation.
Also significant in these early games was an evolution of offensive strategies on the part of the "Blue" force as the players began to appreciate the survivability of forward-engaged maritime forces and the synergistic contributions of joint and combined forces. Equally revealing was the shift over time to an outcome that favored conventional rather than nuclear escalation, and the opinion that US and NATO forces would ultimately emerge victorious from a conventional war of extended duration once the economic capacities of the West had shifted to military production.
Issues of particular interest provided the foundation for the iterative process of "game-study-game. Another was the opportunity to challenge conventional wisdom by imposing real-world constraints on untested theories. The games were educational for the intelligence community, in learning the sort of information that policymakers needed in a critical situation, in understanding the information that needed to be researched even to create a plausible scenario.
Policymakers and senior commanders learned how to use intelligence more effectively, and how to make use of the community resources.
They also provided an opportunity to test new strategies and tactics, and sometimes explore the potential of weapons systems under consideration. The beginning of that interwar period saw the emergence of new technologies with startling potential military applications. It must be remembered that no intelligence community existed at the time. Can the modern intelligence community establish ways to test a wide range of opponents in a context of a "system of systems"? One service's intelligence was unlikely to consult with another, so the interactions of land-based aircraft, other than naval aviation, might not be considered.
Perhaps because the Navy was more used to map exercises than the Army, the Naval War College was able to develop new concepts through gaming. Part of this was defining the requirements "for a measured, step-by-step offensive campaign, and began to appreciate the potential of naval aviation to operate as a principal offensive system, rather than as a "scouting arm," for the main battle fleet.
What trends appear to be emerging from contemporary wargaming that can help shape our significantly downsized armed forces for the next century, as well as planning the intelligence community to meet the warfighters' needs? What are the lessons we have learned and where are the lessons to be learned? Priorities, all intelligence-dependent, seem to include: Post Cold War games at the Naval War College indicated that aircraft carriers had to be faster than cruisers in order to survive.
Similar survival-type games are needed to test current and planned precision strike platforms and systems, such as the survival of carrier battle groups in the littoral, a comparison of carrier battle groups with future surface combatant concepts, and the range and stealthiness required for carrier-based aircraft to prove effective and survivable.
Attention must be paid to the survivability of intelligence cycle components, from sensors to dissemination, and what happens when they are degraded. Intelligence collection caspabilities were considered early in the planning process, not as an afterthought. The criticality of space systems was such that intelligence needed to determine the threat to them, and then develop alternatives e.
These space-based systems are not limited to pure intelligence; consider the dependence of both fighting and intelligence functions on GPS.
Recognizing that criticality is one reason that complementary, terrestrial eLORAN is attracting interest. Tight coupling of sensors and precision attack might shift frameworks to a "halting" rather than a "buildup" or "counterattack" framework. Gaming can explore the intelligence requirements to know what are the centers of gravity for halting frameworks. Current games, especially when using actual C3I equipment, are exploring the amounts of intelligence information that may flow, and the communications support that will be needed.
Experience in Kosovo demonstrated friction when adequate intelligence management was deployed early, and friction in Bosnia when it was not. Wargames now need to explore the effects of portions of one's own, or one's opponent, C3I and ISR capabilities being disabled.
In the s, naval officers began to understand the need for task force organization. Games have to explore the interoperability of intelligence systems for ad hoc, interservice task forces. There is a need to understand what happens if the opponent has comparably sophisticated organizational flexibility, C3I, and ISR.
Are the services anticipating the changing nature of future conflict in their wargaming? Are the experiences from those wargames enriching or challenging the services' vision? Are the lessons learned in the wargames played by the separate services being transferred into the joint arena?
In other words, when it comes to wargames, who's winning and who's losing. The major games, authorized by explicit Congressional funding, all taught lessons, including that the services were not starting from a terribly coherent future picture.
Services reached a bit less into the future, and made significant changes to their doctrinal frameworks. This process was especially informational to military intelligence producers and consumers, as well as to the analysts concerned with technological development and where and when to focus. Played between and , the games during the Cold War contributed to the "Maritime Strategy" doctrinal framework for forward engagements of the Soviets.